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Behavioral Ecology Advance Access originally published online on September 10, 2007
Behavioral Ecology 2007 18(6):1106-1115; doi:10.1093/beheco/arm083
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© The Author 2007. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Society for Behavioral Ecology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

Sex ratio schedules in a dynamic game: the effect of competitive asymmetry by male emergence order

Jun Abea,b,c, Yoshitaka Kamimurad and Masakazu Shimadaa

a Department of Systems Sciences, University of Tokyo, Meguro, Tokyo 153-8902, Japan b Faculty of Applied Biological Sciences, Gifu University, Yanagido 1-1, Gifu 501-1193, Japan c Institute of Evolutionary Biology, School of Biological Sciences, University of Edinburgh, West Mains Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3JT, UK d Graduate School of Agriculture, Hokkaido University, Kita 9, Nishi 9, Kita-ku, Sapporo 060-8589, Japan

Address correspondence to Jun Abe. E-mail: jun.abe{at}ed.ac.uk.

Received 26 September 2006; revised 6 May 2007; accepted 10 August 2007.


    ABSTRACT
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 MODEL
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 FUNDING
 APPENDIX A
 Appendix B
 REFERENCES
 
Studies of sex allocation have provided some of the most successful tests of theory in behavioral and evolutionary ecology. For instance, local mate competition (LMC) theory has explained variation in sex allocation across numerous species. However, some patterns of sex ratio variation remain unexplained by existing theory. Most existing models have ignored variation in male competitive ability and assumed all males have equal opportunities to mate within a patch. However, in some species experiencing LMC, males often fight fiercely for mates, such that male mating success varies with male fighting ability. Here, we examine the effect of competitive ability on optimal sex allocation schedules using a dynamic programming approach. This model assumes an asymmetric competitive ability derived from different mortalities according to the timing of male emergence. If the mortality of newly emerging males is larger than that of already emerged males, our model predicts a more female-biased sex ratio than expected under traditional LMC models. In addition, females are predicted to produce new males constantly at a low rate over the offspring emergence period. We show that our model successfully predicts the sex ratios produced by females of the parasitoid wasp Melittobia, a genus renowned for its vigorously fighting males and lower than expected sex ratios.

Key words: dynamic game model, lethal male combat, local mate competition, Melittobia, parasitoid wasps, sex allocation.


    INTRODUCTION
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 MODEL
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 FUNDING
 APPENDIX A
 Appendix B
 REFERENCES
 
Sex ratio studies have been very successful in behavioral and evolutionary ecology, providing an elegant test of theory (Charnov 1982Go; Godfray 1994Go; Hardy 2002Go; West et al. 2005Go). One of the most frequently studied areas is local mate competition (LMC) theory, which predicts a female-biased sex ratio when the offspring of only one or a small number of females mate among themselves within a patch (Hamilton 1967Go). This is because a female-biased sex ratio reduces the competition among related males and increases the number of potential mates for those males (Taylor 1981Go). In haplo-diploids, an additional bias is favored because inbreeding makes females relatively more related to their daughters than to their sons (Frank 1985Go; Herre 1985Go). Theory predicts that females should adjust their sex ratio depending on the level of LMC, and there is widespread support for this prediction across a wide range of species from a variety of taxa (West et al. 2005Go). Variation in the sex ratio across populations and species have been explained by factors such as the number of females laying eggs on a patch (Frank 1985Go; Herre 1985Go), female clutch size (Stubblefield and Seger 1990Go; Suzuki and Iwasa 1980Go; Werren 1980Go; Yamaguchi 1985Go), and the proportion of males dispersing from the patch (Fellows et al. 1999Go; West and Herre 1998Go). However, along with these successes, there remain questions regarding unresolved variation in sex ratios (Herre et al. 1997Go; Kinoshita et al. 1998Go; Moore 2002Go; Reece et al. 2004Go; Shuker et al. 2004Go, 2005Go, Shuker, Pen and West 2006; Shuker, Sykes, et al. 2006) and even large deviations from the predicted pattern of sex allocation (Abe, Kamimura, Kondo, et al. 2003; Abe et al.Go 2005Go; Cooperband et al. 2003Go; Innocent et alGo., forthcoming).

Most currently existing models with regard to LMC have ignored variation in competitive ability among males and assumed that all males within a natal patch have equal opportunities to mate with females (but see Abe, Kamimura, Ito, et al. 2003Go; Shuker et al. 2005Go, Shuker, Pen and West 2006Go). However, male individuals may differ in their competitive ability depending on their state (e.g., size, age, physical condition, and genotype). Moreover, in some species, males exhibit lethal combat under LMC conditions (Hamilton 1979Go; West et al. 2001Go; Sabelis et al. 2002Go; Abe, Kamimura, Kondo, et al. 2003; Abe et al.Go 2005Go), leading to the possibility of asymmetrical competition among the males. Evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) models have demonstrated that when females lay eggs asynchronously and the mating success of their sons is influenced by their oviposition order, the ovipositing females should adjust their offspring sex ratios according to the order of oviposition (Abe, Kamimura, Ito, et al. 2003Go; Shuker et al. 2005Go). Emergence order of male offspring is another possible factor that causes variation in competitive ability (Abe et al. 2005Go). This might result in asymmetric mate competition even among male offspring produced by the same female. In species where offspring emerge sequentially over a prolonged period, the competitive ability of sons is likely to be influenced by emergence time. Therefore, the optimal offspring sex ratios at each time point may depend on the emergence order, and the resulting overall sex ratio may differ from the predictions of existing LMC models.

Wakano (2005)Go has recently considered the evolution of sex allocation schedules under LMC. When the effects of both lethal male–male combat and time-dependent control of sex ratio work together, optimal sex ratios are predicted to be more female biased than the original LMC models (Wakano 2005Go). However, he assumed that all emerged males suffer equally from the mortality caused by lethal male combat, and he did not examine possible asymmetric effects on mate competitive abilities that arise from emerging at different times (including mortality before full adult maturation). Here, we examine the consequences when males have different competitive abilities depending on the timing of their emergence. This situation has shown to be important in Melittobia wasps, where earlier emerging males have a large advantage over later emerging males (Abe, Kamimura, Kondo, et al. 2003; Abe et al. 2005Go; Innocent et alGo., forthcoming).

Female parasitoid wasps from the genus Melittobia are able to lay more than 500 eggs on a single insect host over several weeks, with their offspring emerging asynchronously depending on the oviposition order (Adams 2002Go; Abe et al. 2005Go). The males characteristically exhibit lethal combat (Dahms 1984Go). Later emerging males are killed by earlier ones in almost all cases (Abe, Kamimura, Kondo, et al. 2003Go; Innocent et alGo., forthcoming), and this fighting behavior occurs even among close relatives (Abe et al. 2005Go). This asymmetry in fighting ability is thought to occur because newly emerging males remain vulnerable for several hours after eclosion. Melittobia species show extremely female-biased sex ratios (less than 5% males), as measured before the lethal male combat had not yet taken place (Dahms 1984Go; Abe, Kamimura, Kondo, et al. 2003; Abe et al. 2005Go; González et al. 2004Go). However, in contrast to LMC theory that predicts a less female-biased sex ratio as the number of females laying eggs on a patch increases, females do not adjust their offspring sex ratio in response to female number (Werren 1987Go; Abe, Kamimura, Kondo, et al. 2003; Cooperband et al. 2003Go; Innocent et alGo., forthcoming). Lethal male combat has been suggested as a possible explanation for this unusual sex ratio pattern (Abe, Kamimura, Ito, et al. 2003, Abe, Kamimura, Kondo, et al. 2005Go), with females being selected to avoid producing late-emerging males that would be killed by already emerged males. Although asymmetric competitive ability among sons resulting from the oviposition order of females might not apply for the life history of Melittobia species (Abe et al. 2005Go; Innocent et alGo., forthcoming), the asymmetry of male competitive abilities depending on the male emergence order could be a possible explanation for the extremely female-biased sex ratios seen in this group (Abe et al. 2005Go).

To examine the effect of asymmetric male competitive ability resulting from asynchrony in male emergence on female sex allocation, we here develop a model that optimizes sex ratio across a prolonged period of several oviposition events, as opposed to the usual assumption of a single oviposition event. We construct a dynamic programming model (Mangel and Clark 1988Go; Clark and Mangel 2000Go), in which females determine the sex ratio during each time period so as to maximize their own total fitness across the whole emergence period of their offspring. Because the fitness consequences depend critically on the tactics of other females ovipositing on the same host, the model takes the form of a dynamic game (Houston and McNamara 1999Go). ESSs of sex allocation schedules are calculated by varying the asymmetry of competitive ability among males. Finally, we compare the model's predictions with the observed emergence pattern of Melittobia, and evaluate the effects of lethal male combat on the extremely female-biased sex ratios of the species in this genus.


    MODEL
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 MODEL
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 FUNDING
 APPENDIX A
 Appendix B
 REFERENCES
 
Here, we extend LMC theory to include time-dependent decision making, assuming that offspring emerge asynchronously over a prolonged period. Female offspring disperse soon after mating within a natal patch, whereas male offspring stay on the patch. Males engage in lethal combat when competing for mates and have asymmetrical competitive abilities depending on the order in which they emerged. Although we mainly assume the life history of the parasitoid wasp Melittobia, this model can apply to other species in which male offspring do not disperse and asymmetrically compete for mates (see Discussion).

Assumptions of the model
The model assumes that populations are made up of discrete patches (e.g., parasite hosts) and exactly two females lay eggs on the same host, that is, a two-person game. Although Melittobia females can commence oviposition simultaneously or sequentially depending on the timing of finding a host and the condition of the host, we assume the two females simultaneously commence oviposition. Both females keep laying eggs on the host during an oviposition period of a finite length. For mathematical simplicity, the oviposition period is divided into a series of T discrete time steps (e.g., 1 day). Each female lays N eggs at each time step from the start point (t = 1) to the final time step (t = T), that is, each female produces NT eggs over the whole oviposition period. We ignore variation in developmental time among individual offspring and assume that the timing of emergence of each individual exactly depends on the timing of oviposition (as is approximately the case in Melittobia wasps; Abe et al. 2005Go). Emerged female offspring mate at random with a male that has already emerged on the same patch and then disperse within the same time step. Males do not disperse, remaining on the natal patch. Males achieve reproductive success by mating with emerging females during the time steps they survive. We calculate female fitness as the number of grandoffspring, which is the sum of the reproductive success from their sons and daughters, weighted by the relatedness and reproductive value (see below).

Here we call the males that have emerged at a previous time step "remaining males" and newly emerging males at the present time step "new males," and define their survival rates as Ls(z) and Ln(z)(0≤Ls(z),Ln(z)≤1), respectively (Figure 1). If new males emerge without being killed by other males, they are the remaining males at the next time step. Combat occurs more frequently when there are a larger number of males on the patch because they encounter each other more often (Reece et al., forthcoming). Therefore, the survival probabilities (Ls(z) and Ln(z)) are decreasing functions of the total number of males, z, on the patch. We adopt a concavely decreasing function for the survival rates, Ls(z) and Ls(z), with increasing z (Figure 2)

Formula (1a)

Formula (1b)
where bs and bn are constants (bs,bn≥0). The parameter b represents the "rate of change of survival," and the survival rates decrease more steeply as b becomes larger (Figure 2). When z = 1 (i.e., there is only one male on a patch), the male is not attacked by other males and thereby Ls(z) and Ln(z) equal 1 (Figure 2). In Melittobia, newly emerging Ls(z) males are frequently killed by older adult males (Abe, Kamimura, Kondo, et al. 2003;Go Abe et al. 2005Go; Innocent et alGo., forthcoming), such that Ln(z) is always much smaller than at any z (except at z = 1). Therefore, the asymmetric competitive ability between males is determined by the difference in their survival rates. We ignore the natural death of males because it is likely to be negligibly relative to the death from lethal combat.


Figure 1
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Figure 1 The structure of the model. Ln(z) and Ls(z) represent the survival probabilities of new and remaining males, respectively, where z is the number of total males on the patch. See text for further details.

 

Figure 2
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Figure 2 Variation in male survival rates as a function of increasing numbers of males on a patch. The rate of change of the decline in survival, b, influences the pattern of male survival as the number of males increase.

 
The females are confronted with the decision of what sex ratio to produce to maximize fitness, given this pattern of male survival. If they produce females, they constantly gain reproductive success as a linear function of the number of females. We assume that one male can potentially mate with all females on the patch and that mating interactions are not temporally constrained by male–male interactions. However, the reproductive success of sons is largely influenced by the number of other males and females on the patch because their survival rate is determined by total male number at each time step and they compete with other males for females (see Equation 2). The strategy at a time step is a vector {pi} = (p(0), p(1), ..., p(n), ..., p(N)), where p(n) is the probability that a female produces n males (0 ≤ n ≤ N) at the time step. Then, the sex ratio is represented by n/N and the average sex ratio of a population is

Formula
Because the female's decision will depend on the number of her own remaining male offspring (sons) at the time step, the strategy {pi} (t, s) is a function of time step, t, and the expected number of remaining male offspring of the focal female, s. In this model, each female has no information about the strategy (the sex ratio at each time step) of her opponent.

Calculating the ESS
We determine the ESS sex ratio using a dynamic game model based on the damping procedure introduced by Houston and McNamara (1999)Go. In essence, the damping procedure is a process that updates a resident population strategy with the best mutant one responding to it until the ESS is reached. Here we describe that the process of a strategy {pi}k(t, s) reaches to the ESS, where k is the number of times the resident population is updated.

(i) Arbitrarily chosen initial values are assigned to all strategies {pi}0(t, s) at any t and s. In this study, we adopted an initial population strategy that the females lay n males (0 ≤ n ≤ N) with an equal probability at each time step: p(0) = p(1) = ··· p(n) = ··· = p(N) = 1/(N+1), but the initial values do not affect the final results.
(ii) The expected frequencies F(t, s) for which females have s remaining males at time step t are calculated by assuming that all females follow the current population strategy {pi}k(t, s). Given that the two females do not have remaining males at the initial time step, all possible frequencies at later time steps are identified by forward iteration from the first time step (t = 1) to the terminal time step (t = T). If a female produces males and the sons emerge without being killed (with the probability Ln(z)), the number of remaining males will increase (Figure 1). In contrast, lethal male combat decreases the remaining male number with the probability 1 – Ls(z) (Figure 1). Detailed methods are given in Appendix A.
(iii) The best response strategies Bk(t, s) to the current population strategy {pi}k(t, s) are calculated by backward iteration based on the expected frequency F(t, s) from step (ii). The best response is also a vector B = (p'(0), p'(1), ..., p'(n), ..., p'(N)) and is determined so as to maximize the total fitness by considering the expected fitness gained in future time steps as well as the present time step. We define W(t, s, n) as the expected fitness of a female that gained between time step t and terminal period T, when the female having s remaining males lays n males at the time step t:

Formula (2)
where Rf(Rm) is the relatedness coefficient of the female to her daughters (sons), vf(vm) is the class reproductive value for daughters (sons) (Taylor 1996Go), the hat means the sons of the opponent female, and Wstart(t+1) is the fitness gained after the start of the next time step:

Formula (3)
Fitness linearly increases with increasing number of daughters, whereas sons compete with all males on the patch for females, and their reproductive success is also influenced by the state (Formula) and strategy (Formula) of the opponent female. The summed term over Formula and Formula in Equation 2 is the reproductive success through sons and the expected fitness gained during the subsequent time steps. If the sons survive, they also gain reproductive success mating with females that emerge subsequently. Under a best response strategy, an optimal strategy that gives the highest fitness (highest W(n)(0 ≤ n ≤ N)) is chosen with the highest probability (p'(n)). In order to converge the sequence of the strategies to a global optimum, we incorporated errors into the choice of action (McNamara et al. 1997Go). Iterating Equations 2 and 3, the best response strategies are identified at all time steps from the terminal time step (t = T) to the beginning time step (t = 1). The detailed procedure relating to the backward iteration with error is described in Appendix B.

(iv) The new strategies for the next population {pi}k + 1 are calculated from the current population strategy {pi}k and the current best response Bk. In order to avoid an oscillatory solution, a weighted average between them is given as

Formula (4)
where {lambda}(0<{lambda} ≤ 1) determines the degree of damping and is set at {lambda} = 0.1 in our model.

(v) The ESS can be obtained by repeating step (ii)–(iv). If the best response to a strategy is the strategy itself, this is the ESS. Therefore,

Formula (5)
The damping procedure was repeated until the differences between the probabilities p(n) and p' (n) (0 ≤ n ≤ N) in relation to all time steps and females' states were less than 0.0001, and the resulting strategies were identified as the ESS.

At step (ii), the frequencies F(t, s) were calculated under the assumption that all females in the population adopted the same strategy {pi}k (t, s). This assumption is not actually possible in a two-person game, although it can be approximated in a game that has a large number of players. If the strategy of a mutant is largely different from that of the resident, a discrepancy arises between the real and the calculated frequencies on a patch in which a mutant and a resident lay eggs. However, if the strategies approach a convergence point by the damping procedure, the difference between the real and expected frequencies gradually decreases. When the damping completely converges in Equation 5, all players take the same strategy and the frequency differences disappear. Therefore, if the strategies converge to a point, we can regard the final converged strategy as the ESS. In all cases we examined here, the sex ratio strategies converged to such a point. We confirmed that the average ESS sex ratio converged at 0.25 and 0.214 in diploid and haplo-diploid genetic systems, respectively (the ESS sex ratio with two females in Hamilton 1967Go, 1979Go; Taylor and Bulmer 1980Go) when our model did not have discrete time steps (i.e., T = 1) and did not assume lethal male combat.


    RESULTS
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 MODEL
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 FUNDING
 APPENDIX A
 Appendix B
 REFERENCES
 
Although the ESS strategies {pi}(t, s) and the expected frequencies F(t, s) were calculated for all possible female states (i.e., the number of remaining male offspring, s), the results below are represented by the averages of sex ratios (the proportion of males) and the expected number of remaining male offspring for each time step (see Equations A6 and B6 in appendix, respectively). All our results assume haplo-diploid organisms—the same qualitative pattern is predicted for diploid species, but with slightly less female-biased sex ratios.

Sex ratios declined over the oviposition period, regardless of the specific parameters used (Figure 3). The highest sex ratios are predicted to occur at the beginning of oviposition (Figure 3A), when new males are able to survive with a high probability owing to reduced male combat. In addition, females favor early production of sons rather than daughters because sons stay in the patch and acquire reproductive success during later time steps, whereas daughters' reproductive success is independent of time. However, sex ratios are still female biased at the beginning (Figure 3A).


Figure 3
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Figure 3 The survival rates of new males influence the ESS sex ratio sequence (A) and the expected number of remaining males (B): bs = 0.01, N = 20, and T = 25. The total sex ratios throughout the emergence period are 11.5, 8.0, and 3.5%, when bn = 0.1, 0.25, and 1, respectively.

 
As the remaining males are accumulated over the time steps (Figure 3B), females produce more female-biased sex ratios. Newly produced males have little chance of survival to the subsequent time step. Females, however, do not stop male production and continue to produce males at a low rate over time. The accumulation of remaining males stops at a marginal value where the advantage of having more remaining males with a high death rate is balanced by the advantage of having females that constantly gain reproductive success (Figure 3B). After this time, females continue producing just enough new males to maintain this balance. As the emergence period draws to the last time step, the advantage of new male production decreases because remaining males do not acquire reproductive success after the period, and so the females preferentially produce daughters rather than sons. In all cases, the model predicts that sex ratios should approach 0 at the final time step (Figure 3A).

The survival rate of new males has a large influence on the predicted sex ratio (Figure 3). When the survival rate of new males steeply decreases with increasing male number (large bn; Figure 2), females are predicted to produce more female-biased sex ratios over the emergence period up until the last few steps (Figure 3A). As a result, the marginal number of remaining males decreases (Figure 3B).

The survival rate of remaining males also influences the predicted sex ratios (Figure 4). In the early part of the emergence period, females produce almost the same sex ratio independently of the survival rate (Figure 4A). As the time step progresses, a larger number of remaining males accumulates with higher survival rate (Figure 4B), such that new males suffer increased mortality, favoring the production of daughters (Figure 4A). As the survival rate of remaining males decreases, females produce higher sex ratios and continue producing new males, even near the last time step (Figure 4A). When the survival rate of remaining and new males is very similar (i.e., there is no asymmetry; bs = bn = 0.25), the optimal sex ratios of each time step are predicted to be close to 21.4% (Figure 4; Hamilton 1979Go).


Figure 4
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Figure 4 The survival rate of remaining males influences the ESS sex ratio sequence (A) and the expected number of remaining males (B): bn = 0.25, N = 20, and T = 25. The total sex ratios throughout the emergence period are 8.0, 13.5, and 18.6%, when bs = 0.01, 0.1, and 0.25, respectively.

 
When females are able to produce a large number of offspring at each time step (higher N), the optimal sex ratio is reduced (Figure 5). Because the survival rates of both types of males are assumed to be influenced by the total male number on the patch (Figure 2), optimal numbers of new males are mainly determined by male number (not proportion). Females should produce almost the same number of new males regardless of their offspring number (Figure 5B). If females can lay a large number of offspring in a given time step, they invest in females (Figure 5A,B).


Figure 5
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Figure 5 Offspring number at a single time step, N, influences the ESS sex ratio sequence (A) and the expected number of remaining males (B): bs = 0.01, bn = 0.25, and T = 25. The total sex ratios throughout the emergence period are 9.9, 8.0, and 6.0%, when N = 10, 20, and 40, respectively.

 
Finally, the effect of the total number of time steps, T, had little effect on the total sex ratios (Figure 6). Optimal sex ratios are similar in the early part of the emergence period regardless of the length of the oviposition period with females favoring female production at the end of the oviposition period (Figure 6A,B). As a result, more female-biased total sex ratios are predicted for shorter time steps, but the effect is small, except over very small numbers of time steps.


Figure 6
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Figure 6 The total number of time steps, T, influences the ESS sex ratio sequence (A) and the expected number of remaining males (B): bs = 0.01, bn = 0.25, and N = 20. The total sex ratios throughout the emergence period are 8.7, 8.0, and 7.6%, when T = 15, 25, and 35, respectively.

 

    DISCUSSION
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 MODEL
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 FUNDING
 APPENDIX A
 Appendix B
 REFERENCES
 
General predictions from the model
In our model, the difference in survival between newly emerged males and their already emerged counterparts drives the production of extremely female-biased sex ratios. Females favor a low rate of male production because this large asymmetry in survival reduces the value of producing sons and hence increases the relative advantage of daughters. This effect does not vary to any great extent with the number of time steps that make up the oviposition period or clutch size. However, females do not completely stop producing sons, even when new male offspring are highly likely to be killed. This is because, if a male survives, they can gain an extremely large reproductive success due to the highly female-biased sex ratio. Therefore, females maintain a low level of male production, until close to the end of the oviposition period, when male production tails off. As the asymmetry of competitive ability decreases, females invest in more males and the sex ratios at each time step approach 21.4% males (Figure 4) as predicted by the original LMC model that assumes symmetric mate competition without temporal schedules in haplo-diploid species (Hamilton 1979Go).

Several other models have examined different types of competitive asymmetries among adult males on a local patch under conditions of LMC. Godfray (1986)Go examined the influence of asymmetric competition between siblings of the two sexes. When the sexes have different effects on individual fitness through resource competition, the sex ratio is predicted to be biased toward the sex that reduces the negative effect of the competition (Godfray 1986Go; Sykes et al., forthcoming). Asynchronous emergence on a patch also influences the extent of LMC. When females produce their broods asynchronously and emerging males remain on the natal patch, the extent of LMC increases and the optimal sex ratio is more female biased than predicted by the original LMC model (Nunney and Luck 1988Go). Although this model assumes that all individual females behave the same, other models allow individuals to produce different sex ratios (Abe, Kamimura, Ito, et al. 2003Go; Shuker et al. 2005Go). Because males emerging from later broods more often compete for mates with unrelated males (relatively weaker LMC), optimal sex ratios are predicted to be less female biased in later broods (Shuker et al. 2005Go). Shuker et al. (2005)Go and Shuker, Pen, et al. (2006)Go termed this situation asymmetrical LMC and showed that the parasitoid wasp Nasonia vitripennis produces different offspring sex ratios in the directions predicted by their theoretical model.

Comparison with empirical data in Melittobia wasps
Melittobia species exhibit extremely female-biased sex ratios that cannot be explained by LMC or other preexisting models (Werren 1987Go; Abe, Kamimura, Kondo, et al. 2003Go; Abe et al. 2005Go; Cooperband et al. 2003Go; Innocent et alGo., forthcoming). Lethal male–male combat means that later emerging males are killed (Abe, Kamimura, Kondo, et al. 2003Go; Abe et al. 2005Go), yielding a large asymmetry in competitive abilities depending on emergence time. Our model predicts that the sex ratio decreases from 21.4% toward extreme female bias as the asymmetric competitive abilities between remaining and new males increases. The observed emergence patterns in Melittobia, with a small number of males emerging across the emergence period (Abe et al. 2005Go) and a slightly less female-biased sex ratio at the beginning of the emergence period (Innocent et alGo., forthcoming), are also consistent with our model. Moreover, males that win the fights are also larger (Hartley and Matthews 2003Go; Innocent et alGo., forthcoming; Reece et al., forthcoming). Because individual offspring tend to be smaller over the course of their emergence period, the asymmetric competitive ability between early and late males is expected to be even greater. A crucial next step will be to estimate the parameters in our model and especially the survival rate functions when there are multiple males in a patch.

Wakano (2005)Go similarly analyzed time-dependent sex allocation and predicted a low rate of male production over the emergence period. He assumed that all emerged males suffered an equal risk of death from lethal male combats. To generate biased sex ratios, males must have exclusive territories and superfluous males need to be strictly killed. However, such behavior has not been recorded from any Melittobia species (Dahms 1984Go; González et al. 2004Go; González and Matthews 2005Go). Our models, which rely on asymmetrical competitive ability among emerging males (Abe, Kamimura, Kondo, et al. 2003Go; Abe et al. 2005Go; Innocent et alGo., forthcoming), therefore have more plausible underlying biological assumptions to explain the highly female-biased sex ratios observed in species of wasps such as Melittobia.

Applications of the model
Trivers and Willard (1973)Go suggested that females should adjust their offspring sex ratios in response to different environmental conditions. If oviposition order differently influences the reproductive successes of sons and daughters, different sex ratios can be expected, depending on the order in which eggs hatch. Several empirical reports show that female birds actually adjust the sex of their eggs according to the order within broods (Cockburn 2002Go). In these species, females can maximize fitness by avoiding oviposition of the less suitable sex depending on subsequent brood interactions between or within sexes (Bortolotti 1986Go; Nager et al. 1999Go; Legge et al. 2001Go; Badyaev et al. 2002Go; Janssen et al. 2006Go). For example, in a carpenter bee species where female offspring guard the nest after their emergence, females are preferentially laid earlier than males (Stark 1992Go).

Our model would apply equally well to other species whenever asymmetrical mate competition occurring among males and females can estimate the competitive ability of their sons before oviposition. Nonpollinating fig wasps from several different families show severe lethal combat when males compete locally for mates (Hamilton 1979Go; West et al. 2001Go). Whereas pollinating fig wasps oviposit synchronously, nonpollinating fig wasps lay eggs from the outside of the fruit over a longer period. Asymmetries might arise from the differential development and emergence of males depending on their oviposition time. In fact, there are some nonpollinating fig wasp species that show more female-biased sex ratios than expected under LMC predictions (Herre et al. 1997Go; West and Herre 1998Go). In addition, Cardiocondyla ants have so-called ergatoid males that do not disperse from their maternal nest and instead fight aggressively for access to females. In several species, adult ergatoid males kill all other newly emerging ergatoid males, and only one or a small number of ergatoid males survive and monopolize mates in the nest (Heinze et al. 1998Go; Cremer and Heinze 2002Go; Schrempf et al. 2005Go). In this situation, sex allocation is likely to have evolved in response to similar asymmetries. Indeed, different production schedules of ergatoid males do occur in the predicted direction, with ergatoid males produced earlier in multiqueen colonies than in single-queen colonies (Yamauchi et al. 2006Go). Finally, our model could apply to a broad range of species, such as Ozopemon bark beetles or various mite species in which offspring sex ratios are extremely female biased and males fight fiercely under LMC conditions (Jordal et al. 2002Go; Sabelis et al. 2002Go).


    FUNDING
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 MODEL
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 FUNDING
 APPENDIX A
 Appendix B
 REFERENCES
 
Research Fellowship of the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science for Young Scientists (181102 to J.A.).


    APPENDIX A
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 MODEL
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 FUNDING
 APPENDIX A
 Appendix B
 REFERENCES
 
Calculation of expected frequencies at all possible states
Expected frequencies of females having s remaining males, F(t, s), can be calculated using forward iteration from t = 1 to t = T, assuming all females in the population adopt the same strategy {pi}k (t, s) (although this approximation is not exactly achieved in a two-person game; see the main text for a more detailed explanation). Because the frequency F(t, s) is the probability distribution of the female's state (i.e., the number of her own remaining males, s),

Formula (A1)

At the beginning of time step (t = 1) in which the two females start laying offspring, they do not have any remaining males:

Formula (A2)
Remaining male numbers are affected by their death from lethal male combat and the production of additional males by females. The expected frequency F(t, s) at time step t is calculated from the frequency at last time step F(t 1, s) as follows.

First, let Pr(z, s, n, x) denote the probability that a total of x males survive at a time step in which a female has s remaining males and lays n new males in a patch containing z males. If we suppose v males survive out of the s remaining males, x v males need to survive out of n new males (xv = n). Then, the probability is given by

Formula (A3)
where Ls(z) and Ln(z) are the probability that one remaining male and one new male stay alive at a time step, respectively. The survival rates are functions of total male number (z = s + Formula + n + Formula), where a hat designates the sons of the opponent female.

The expected frequency F(t, s) is derived from the frequency F(t – 1, s) and the strategy {pi}(t – 1, s) at the last time step. Summing all possible situations with regard to expected own state s, opponent state Formula, own new male number n, and opponent new male number Formula at the last time step t – 1, the total frequency is calculated by

Formula (A4)
where M is the possible maximum number of remaining males at each time step. If a female has laid only males by the time step t and all sons have survived, M = Nt.

To facilitate alleviation of arithmetic processing, we used smaller values for M (e.g., M = 20) and employed the "chop" function (Mangel and Clark 1988Go):

Formula (A5)
This function bounds the state of the females within the upper limit M. In other words, the females cannot have more than the maximum number of males, and if they lay males beyond the limit, the excess newly emerging males are destined to die. Then, Equation A2 is substituted with

Formula (A4')
This simplifying assumption does not affect the final outcome because females do not lay so many males in the situations where lethal combat occurs.

From the initial distribution of Equation A2, the frequencies at all subsequent time steps in all possible states are calculated in a stepwise process using Equation A4'. Although we calculated all possible F(t, s)(1 ≤ t ≤ T, 0 ≤ s ≤ M), only the averages of remaining male numbers for each time step were represented in the results:

Formula (A6)


    Appendix B
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 MODEL
 RESULTS
 DISCUSSION
 FUNDING
 APPENDIX A
 Appendix B
 REFERENCES
 
Calculation of the best response strategy
Best response strategy B(t, s) can be calculated with backward iteration from t = T to t = 1, given the current frequencies F(t, s) and the current population strategy {pi}k(t, s). First, we define W(t, s,n) as the expected fitness of a female that gained between time step t and terminal period T, when the female having s remaining males lays n new males at the time step t. Then, W(T, s, n) is the fitness gained only at the final time step, so that

Formula (B1)
where Rf(Rm) is the relatedness coefficient of the female to her daughters (sons), and vf(vm) is the class reproductive value for daughters (sons) (Taylor, 1996Go). When s + n > 0, the expected fitness is obtained from both the sons and daughters. If the focal female does not have any remaining males and does not produce new males (s + n = 0), she acquires fitness only from her daughters under the condition that the opponent female has at least one remaining male or produces one new male. Because we assume species are haplo-diploid here, vf = 2/3 and vm = 1/3 (Taylor 1996Go), Rf = (1+3f)/(2+2f), where f is the inbreeding coefficient, and Rm = 1 (Taylor, 1993Go). The inbreeding coefficient, f, depends on the proportion of sibmating. When two females lay eggs on a patch and there is no asymmetry between them, f = (1/5) (Taylor 1993Go).

When t ≤ T – 1, W(t, s, n) can be divided into the fitness element gained at time step t and after the subsequent time steps:

Formula (B2)
where Wstart(t+1) is the fitness gained after the start of the next time step. Collecting together all of W(t, s, n) with the probability of the best response, p' (t, s, n) (see Equation B4 for calculation), the fitness after the start point of each time step is calculated:

Formula (B3)
Whereas the expected remaining male number at the subsequent time step (sLs(z) + nLn(z)) in Equation B2 is calculated as a continuous value, Wstart(t+1, s) is calculated for each state (s = 0,1,..., M). We used a standard linear interpolation approximation to calculate the expected fitness function after the start point of the subsequent time step (Mangel and Clark 1988Go).

To facilitate convergence, we introduced errors in decision making (McNamara et al. 1997Go). If there are no errors, the best response strategy always chooses an action that maximizes fitness (maximal W(n) (0 ≤ n ≤ N)). In contrast, the error-prone best response B = (p' (0), p '(1),..., p'(n),..., p'(N)) is calculated as follows

Formula (B4)
where {delta} represent the degree of error and C(i) is a measure of the loss in fitness as a result of choosing action i:

Formula (B5)
Under the error-prone best response, an action leading to maximal fitness (highest W(n)) is chosen with the highest probability. As the loss in fitness as a result of choosing an action increases, the action is chosen with smaller probability. Larger values of the error degree {delta} make convergence easier, whereas smaller values yield a more accurate response strategy (there is no error when {delta} = 0). We adopted {delta} = 0.1 throughout this study.

The chop function was also used for the calculation of best response (see Equation A5 in Appendix A). Then, Equations B1 and B2 are substituted with

Formula (B1')
and

Formula (B2')

By repeating the process with Equations B2', B3, and B4 from the terminal time step (Equation B1'), the best response at each time step is identified. The strategies for each time step were represented as the average sex ratio in the results:

Formula (B6)


    ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
 
We are very grateful to H. Ito and M. Setoyama for their helpful programming suggestions and to S. A. West, D. M. Shuker, A. Gardner, S. A. Reece, J. Y. Wakano, N. E. Pierce, and two anonymous referees for their valuable comments on previous versions of the manuscript.


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 APPENDIX A
 Appendix B
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